How Long Will My Retirement Savings Last?
Estimate how long your retirement savings could last based on what you want to spend after tax, your income, retirement age, inflation, and investment assumptions. Federal income tax on your withdrawals is estimated for you.
Based on these assumptions
Your retirement savings are projected to last through age 95.
Projected remaining balance at 95: approximately $624,000.
To spend about $113,100 after tax in your first year of retirement, the model withdraws $122,500 before tax and sets aside about $9,300 for federal income tax — a simplified estimate, an effective rate of 7.6%.
Once Social Security begins at 67, the portfolio withdrawal drops to about $80,100 a year — a 4.3% withdrawal rate on the projected balance of $1,844,000 that year.
Retirement years funded
31
Initial withdrawal rate
6.4%
Pre-tax withdrawal ÷ balance at retirement
Projected balance at 65
$1,914,000
First-year withdrawal
$122,500
Pre-tax, before Social Security starts at 67
Simplified federal tax estimate, year one
$9,300
Effective rate 7.6% · see note below
Projected balance at 95
$624,000
Projected portfolio balance
| Age | Baseline balance |
|---|---|
| 60 | $1,575,000 |
| 61 | $1,654,000 |
| 62 | $1,736,000 |
| 63 | $1,823,000 |
| 64 | $1,914,000 |
| 65 | $1,882,000 |
| 66 | $1,844,000 |
| 67 | $1,852,000 |
| 68 | $1,858,000 |
| 69 | $1,863,000 |
| 70 | $1,865,000 |
| 71 | $1,866,000 |
| 72 | $1,864,000 |
| 73 | $1,859,000 |
| 74 | $1,852,000 |
| 75 | $1,842,000 |
| 76 | $1,829,000 |
| 77 | $1,813,000 |
| 78 | $1,794,000 |
| 79 | $1,770,000 |
| 80 | $1,743,000 |
| 81 | $1,711,000 |
| 82 | $1,674,000 |
| 83 | $1,633,000 |
| 84 | $1,587,000 |
| 85 | $1,535,000 |
| 86 | $1,477,000 |
| 87 | $1,413,000 |
| 88 | $1,343,000 |
| 89 | $1,265,000 |
| 90 | $1,180,000 |
| 91 | $1,086,000 |
| 92 | $985,000 |
| 93 | $874,000 |
| 94 | $754,000 |
| 95 | $624,000 |
Optional stress test
See the impact of an early market downturn
A hypothetical 30% decline in your first year of retirement, with the market recovering to its previous level over the following 3 years. Your inputs stay the same; the chart above shows both paths.
Important: This calculator is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide investment, tax, legal, or financial advice. Results are hypothetical estimates based on the assumptions entered and do not account for all factors that may affect an individual’s retirement. Actual results may differ materially.
What This Calculator Leaves Out
It is a deliberately simple model. Each of these can move the answer by years.
- Roth and brokerage accounts
- Every dollar is treated as pre-tax, so most real plans owe less tax than shown.
- Required minimum distributions
- Forced withdrawals from your early 70s can raise the tax bill in years the model shows as quiet.
- State income tax
- Only federal tax is estimated. Illinois exempts retirement income; most states do not.
- Investment fees
- Not deducted — and they compound against you as quietly as inflation.
- Uneven spending
- Real retirements are lumpier. Healthcare and long-term care arrive late and large.
- Claiming decisions
- Benefits are taken as entered. Claiming strategy, survivor benefits and law changes are not modelled.
The order of your returns
The biggest omission. The projection assumes the same return every year; real markets do not, and poor years early in retirement do damage out of all proportion to the average. That is sequence-of-returns risk.
Why Your Average Return Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story
A portfolio averaging 5% over many years does not necessarily produce the same retirement result as earning exactly 5% every year. While you are saving, the order of returns barely matters — the money compounds either way. Once you are withdrawing, it matters a great deal.
If the poor years come early, each withdrawal is taken from a portfolio that is already down, and the shares sold to fund it are gone before the recovery arrives. If the same poor years come late, the portfolio has had years of growth to absorb them. Same average, different outcome. This is called sequence-of-returns risk, and the first few years of retirement are where it bites hardest.
Use the market-downturn scenario in the calculator above to see how the timing of poor returns can affect the same retirement plan. It applies a 30% decline in the first year of retirement and a 3-year recovery, then compares the result with your baseline.
What If Your Savings Don’t Last as Long as You’d Like?
Four things move the answer. None of them is a recommendation — which lever to pull, and how far, depends on the rest of your situation.
Spending
Even modest changes can materially affect portfolio longevity, because a lower withdrawal compounds in your favour every year that follows.
Retirement age
Additional working years can simultaneously increase savings and reduce the number of years the portfolio has to fund.
Guaranteed income
Social Security or pension income reduces reliance on portfolio withdrawals. The timing of a Social Security claim is part of this.
Portfolio and withdrawal strategy
Asset allocation and withdrawal decisions can affect how a retirement portfolio responds to market conditions — including which accounts you draw from and when.
Questions people ask
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
It depends on your spending, how much Social Security or a pension covers, and what your investments earn after inflation. Drawing $40,000 a year from $1 million is a very different plan from drawing $80,000. Run your own numbers above instead of relying on a rule of thumb.
How long will $2 million last in retirement?
Doubling savings does not double the answer if spending doubles too. What matters is the portfolio withdrawal — spending minus guaranteed income — as a share of the balance. Test $2 million against your own spending.
What is a reasonable retirement withdrawal rate?
There is no single right number. A rate that is comfortable for a 70-year-old with a pension may be too high for a 60-year-old with no guaranteed income and a 35-year horizon. The calculator shows your initial withdrawal rate as a reference point; sustainability depends on spending flexibility, returns, inflation, and how long the money must last.
Does Social Security help retirement savings last longer?
Yes. It reduces what your portfolio must supply each year, and it rises with inflation. Starting later means more years drawing on the portfolio first; this simplified model does not increase the benefit for a later start.
How does inflation affect retirement savings?
It raises the withdrawal every year. At 2.5% inflation, $100,000 of spending becomes about $128,000 in ten years and $164,000 in twenty — which is why a plan that looks comfortable in year one can tighten considerably later.
Does this calculator account for taxes?
Federal income tax, as a simplified estimate. You enter after-tax spending, and the calculator assumes withdrawals come from a pre-tax account such as a traditional IRA or 401(k), grossing them up to cover the tax. It uses the 2026 IRS brackets and standard deduction indexed for inflation, the 65-and-older deductions (including the temporary senior deduction that ends after 2028), and the IRS rules for taxing Social Security. State tax, Roth and brokerage withdrawals, and itemized deductions are not modelled.
Why do market losses early in retirement matter?
Because withdrawals continue while the portfolio is down, locking in losses and leaving less to recover. The same average return with the poor years first can produce a very different outcome. The market-downturn scenario in the calculator shows this on your numbers.
Want to Look at the Full Retirement Picture?
This calculator intentionally simplifies retirement. A complete analysis can account for taxes, IRA and Roth balances, Social Security timing, investment risk, Roth conversions, RMDs, healthcare costs, and other decisions that may affect your retirement income.
Calculator assumptions and disclosures
Important: This calculator is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide investment, tax, legal, or financial advice. Results are hypothetical estimates based on the assumptions entered and do not account for all factors that may affect an individual’s retirement. Actual results may differ materially.
The federal income tax shown is a simplified estimate, not a tax calculation for your return. It assumes every withdrawal comes from a pre-tax retirement account and is fully taxable, treats pension income as fully taxable, and applies the IRS provisional-income rules to Social Security. It models only the income sources entered in this calculator: it does not model taxable brokerage gains, tax-exempt interest, Roth withdrawals, itemized deductions, tax credits, state income tax, Medicare premium surcharges (IRMAA), required minimum distributions, or other household income. It uses the 2026 federal tax brackets and standard deduction, indexed forward at your inflation assumption, plus the additional standard deduction for each person 65 or older. It also includes the temporary senior deduction of up to $6,000 per person 65 or older, which under current law applies only to tax years 2025 through 2028 and phases out above $75,000 of income ($150,000 on a joint return); the model removes it after 2028. On a joint return your spouse’s age is used for your spouse’s deductions.
The market-downturn scenario is hypothetical and is intended only to demonstrate how an early market decline and subsequent recovery could affect portfolio withdrawals. It is not a forecast or prediction of future market performance.
Not modelled
- State income tax — Illinois exempts retirement income, but most states do not
- Roth and taxable-brokerage accounts — every withdrawal is treated as fully taxable, as from a traditional IRA or 401(k)
- Capital gains, dividends, itemized deductions, tax credits, and Medicare premium surcharges (IRMAA)
- Investment fees and expenses
- Actual market volatility — returns are assumed to be the same every year except in the optional downturn scenario
- Changes in spending over retirement, including healthcare and long-term care costs
- Changes to Social Security or pension benefits, and any survivor or spousal benefit rules
- Required minimum distributions, Roth conversions, and other tax-timing decisions
- Future changes to tax law — the temporary senior deduction is assumed to end after 2028 as currently scheduled
Sources for the 2026 tax figures
- Rev. Proc. 2025-32 — Standard deduction, rate brackets and the additional standard deduction for the aged, tax year 2026.
- 26 U.S.C. §151(d)(5)(C) — The temporary senior deduction: $6,000 per qualifying individual, taxable years beginning before 2029, reduced by 6% of modified AGI over $75,000 ($150,000 joint).
- IRS Publication 915 — Provisional-income rules and the base amounts that determine how much of a Social Security benefit is taxable. These thresholds are fixed in statute and are not indexed for inflation.
Bracket, standard-deduction and 65-or-older figures are the published 2026 amounts, indexed forward at the inflation rate you enter. The Social Security and senior-deduction thresholds are fixed in statute and are not indexed.